Andy Zaky explains in painstaking detail how to do what almost no professional Wall Street analysts actually do: accurately predict Apple’s finances. This is what you call “showing your work”. Bottom line:
Over the past several years, and especially after undergoing a
major accounting change in fiscal Q1 2010, Apple has consistently
reported a quarterly revenue number that was precisely 12-18%
above its revenue guidance. Regardless of how rosy or conservative
the Wall Street consensus happens to be, regardless of what
Business Insider has to say about the Android destroying iPhone
sales, regardless of all of the channel checks, Gartner & IDC
research data, Comscore, NPD data, and the supply chain.
Regardless of rumors of Apple cutting manufacturing orders by 90%
as falsely reported every quarter by the Chinese equivalent of the
National Enquirer, Digitimes. Regardless of all of these reports
that Apple has cut iPhone production by 75%, regardless of
reports, and rumors of reports of Apple’s untimely death.
Regardless of everything you hear from analysts, fund managers
CNBC or anyone else for that matter. The fact remains that Apple
consistently beats its own revenue guidance by the same exact
12-18% every single quarter. The rest is all noise intended to do
nothing else but to distract you.
Tremendously detailed article. Zaky continues to impress.