Dan Frommer Says 1 Million iPhones in 74 Days Is Not a Good Number

Dan Frommer:

Jobs has announced plans to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 — a year and a half after launch. But a million iPhones in 74 days works out to a little less than 5 million iPhones per year — if you’re selling them at a consistent rate.

Pointing out that iPhones aren’t yet selling at a pace to reach 10 million by the end of 2008 is like pointing out that a car that just pulled out of a parking spot isn’t yet going 65 MPH. Sales curves bend.

It’s so obvious I can’t believe everyone doesn’t see it. Apple is going to push the price down as fast as they can. At $599, the iPhone was better but more expensive than its competitors. At $399 it’s better and cost-competitive. Next year Apple will have iPhone models that are better and cheaper than its competitors.

Apple sold 270,000 machines in the first two frenzied days it was on sale, which means it took 72 more days to sell another 700,000 phones.

It’s absolutely true that Apple’s “million iPhones in 74 days” number is severely distorted by the unprecedented opening weekend demand. But 700,000 phones over the remaining 72 days is great. Did any other smartphone sell better in that period?

Anyone who wants to bet me that Apple won’t sell 10 million by the end of 2008, let me know. And before you place your bet with me, recall that the iPhone still isn’t on sale anywhere other than the U.S.

★ Monday, 10 September 2007