The Problem Isn’t With Predictions

Peter Kafka:

We thought that at this point, everyone understands: The blogosphere isn’t 100% reliable, especially when it comes to Apple-related news. Some combination of intense fanboy and investor interest, mixed with Apple’s secrecy fetish means that the Web is riddled with eroneous [sic, I swear] predictions about Steve Jobs’ next move.

The problem is not with predictions. Predictions are fun. My predictions about Apple have been wrong far more often than they’ve been right. The problem is with false reports. None of the reports I called out yesterday were “predictions”, they were false reports. “Here’s what I think Apple will do” is very different from “Here’s what a trusted source tells me Apple is going to announce”.

I find that it is easy to be right with what I report, because I only report what I know to be true. This is not some sort of high standard. It is basic journalism.

★ Wednesday, 15 October 2008