A lot of people asked me over the last few weeks why I was so certain Obama would win, or why I wasn’t a nervous wreck (especially for the brief period in September when McCain took a small lead in most polls). The answer is Nate Silver. Or, more specifically, Nate Silver’s math. Silver, along with his colleagues at FiveThirtyEight, established themselves as the gold standard in electoral analysis — and this was the first election they’ve covered.
★ Monday, 10 November 2008