How Many Verizon iPhones Will Apple Sell Next Year?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt on analyst estimates for Verizon iPhone sales, if we’re all right that a deal is imminent:

Reid is even more conservative. He’s only raising his 2011 iPhone sales estimates to 63.3 million from 62.5 million, or 800,000 units.

That’s it? 800,000 measly iPhones? For reasons known only to themselves, analysts who have been breathlessly anticipating a Verizon iPhone are now busy lowering expectations.

That’s crazy. If Verizon gets the iPhone next year, they’ll sell a million on the first day.

Update, 27 January 2011: Ends up that Reid had previously included a Verizon iPhone in his 2011 forecast. But, in his initial forecast, he used a March ship date. The 800K adjustment is from Reid switching to a February ship date. I.e., he’s guessing Verizon will sell 800,000 iPhones in February alone, not 2011 as a whole. Not crazy at all.

★ Thursday, 9 December 2010