Horace Dediu on Verizon’s Smartphone Business

Horace Dediu:

ITG Investment Research analyst Matthew Goodman is forecasting monthly sales record for all of Verizon’s devices “based largely on our proprietary daily point-of-sale data from thousands of independent wireless retailers across the US.” […]

So, if the data is accurate, here is what I conclude:

Verizon has three strikes against them:

  1. The iPhone has stolen their growth
  2. They are facing the prospect of a single OS platform supplier
  3. Android is not competitive vs. iOS

The whole thing hinges on the “if the data is accurate” clause, as Dediu emphasizes. But if the data is good, Dediu makes a strong case that Verizon needs the iPhone more than Apple needs Verizon.

★ Monday, 13 December 2010