How Many iPhones Will Verizon Sell in 2011?

Dan Frommer guesses 10 million:

How did we figure that?

AT&T activated about 14 million new iPhones over the past four quarters on a subscriber base that’s now a little more than 90 million. (Of those activations, about 10 million were by existing AT&T subscribers.)

Verizon’s subscriber base is also about 90 million, and we don’t expect iPhone adoption to be wildly different on Verizon than it has been on AT&T. Maybe somewhat less, because Verizon folks already have high-end Android phones, but not much less.

See, I’d say more. If AT&T can sell 14 million iPhones in four quarters (selling to a base of subscribers who’ve had the iPhone available to them since 2007) why wouldn’t Verizon (selling to a base of subscribers who’ve been starved of the iPhone) be able to sell more? I expect Verizon to sell more iPhones than AT&T does.

★ Tuesday, 14 December 2010