By 2015, however, when 150 million sales are expected, the
proportion of tablets based on Apple software will have plummeted
to 35 percent, the analysts Ovum said. […] The main beneficiary
will be Google, and by 2015 its share of tablet sales will have
risen to 36 percent, Ovum said, edging ahead of Apple, currently
the world’s most valuable technology firm.
So we’re predicting things four years out now. Let’s look at Ovum’s track record from four years ago.
Apple has set itself a target of 10 million units by the end of
2008, but we think this will be a challenge. The device is selling
at a high price point and will not be a mass market device.
Apple wound up selling around 14 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. In March 2007, regarding whether Apple would ever open the iPhone to third-party developers:
Even if [the iPhone] is opened up to third parties, it is
difficult to see how the installed base of iPhones can reach the
level where it becomes a truly attractive service platform for
operator and developer investment,” Cripps countered.
The Ovum analyst added that even if a Software Development Kit
(SDK) was to be released, Mac OS X developers would have a hard
time porting desktop variants of their software to the iPhone due
to basic differences in elements such as the user interface and
Apple’s apparent ditching of conventional application paradigms
for mobile phones seems ill-advised if the company really wanted
the iPhone to be perceived as a smartphone and to take on mobile
juggernauts such as Nokia, Microsoft and Motorola.
Well, I have to admit they nailed that one.
★ Friday, 21 January 2011