Eric Raymond Analyzes the Smartphone Market

Eric Raymond:

First: We can expect Verizon’s iPhone sales to be anemic. A bit of arithmetic applied to this chart tells us Verizon has been churning about 93M * 1.42% * 3 = 396K customers a quarter — about the same as that deadly 400K. The smart way to bet is that most of Verizon’s potential Apple customers decamped to AT&T long ago and are part of that 90% saturation.

Well, that’s one opinion.

★ Monday, 31 January 2011