iPhone, Like Generalissimo Francisco Franco, Is Still Dead

Henry Blodget once again says iPhone fans should be “scared” and that Android is going to win the world. Here’s what I believe to be his faulty assumption:

Why do Android’s gains matter? Can’t Apple just hold onto the “premium” segment of the market?

The Android gains matter because technology platform markets tend to standardize around a single dominant platform (see Windows in PCs, Facebook in social, Google in search). And the more dominant the platform becomes, the more valuable it becomes and the harder it becomes to dislodge.

His assumption is that one platform will win and all others will lose. If that’s true, I actually think he’s right that Android will likely be that winner. I just don’t think it’s true. (I also think he’s wrong that technology markets “tend” to have one overwhelming winner.) There’s room for iOS (and the iPhone specifically) and Android to succeed and grow.

As we’ve said before, Apple is fighting a very similar war to the one it fought — and lost — in the 1990s.

Keep in mind that Apple’s penalty for losing the PC war in the 1990s is that it is now the most profitable PC maker in the world.

★ Tuesday, 26 April 2011