So I think there are three potential outcomes in the mobile
handset industry that are worth contemplating:
Android dominance implies a future where the industry is
horizontal, with an OS vendor creating a dominant application
platform with its associated network effects (demand side
economies of scale).
iOS dominance implies a future where Apple enjoys the demand
side economies of scale associated with a dominant application
platform, and the supply side economies of scale associated
with being the leading handset manufacturer.
iPhone leadership implies a future where the dominant player
is a vertically integrated handset manufacturer that enjoys
supply side economies of scale in manufacturing and marketing.
Count me in with Cox: #3 seems to be where we’re heading, but most analysts seem unwilling to consider any outcome other than #1 or #2.