How to Properly Use Apple’s Guidance to Accurately Forecast Earnings

Andy Zaky explains in painstaking detail how to do what almost no professional Wall Street analysts actually do: accurately predict Apple’s finances. This is what you call “showing your work”. Bottom line:

Over the past several years, and especially after undergoing a major accounting change in fiscal Q1 2010, Apple has consistently reported a quarterly revenue number that was precisely 12-18% above its revenue guidance. Regardless of how rosy or conservative the Wall Street consensus happens to be, regardless of what Business Insider has to say about the Android destroying iPhone sales, regardless of all of the channel checks, Gartner & IDC research data, Comscore, NPD data, and the supply chain.

Regardless of rumors of Apple cutting manufacturing orders by 90% as falsely reported every quarter by the Chinese equivalent of the National Enquirer, Digitimes. Regardless of all of these reports that Apple has cut iPhone production by 75%, regardless of reports, and rumors of reports of Apple’s untimely death. Regardless of everything you hear from analysts, fund managers CNBC or anyone else for that matter. The fact remains that Apple consistently beats its own revenue guidance by the same exact 12-18% every single quarter. The rest is all noise intended to do nothing else but to distract you.

Tremendously detailed article. Zaky continues to impress.

Tuesday, 13 December 2011