The Law of Large Numbers

Also worth a re-link, this year-ago piece by James B. Stewart in the NYT:

If Apple’s share price grew even 20 percent a year for the next decade, which is far below its current blistering pace, its $500 billion market capitalization would be more than $3 trillion by 2022. That is bigger than the 2011 gross domestic product of France or Brazil.

Put another way, to increase its revenue by 20 percent, Apple has to generate additional sales of more than $9 billion in its next fourth quarter. A company with only $1 billion in sales has to come up with just another $200 million.

Update: Yes, yes, what Stewart is talking about is not the “Law of Large Numbers”. But terminology aside, his piece is looking prescient.

★ Thursday, 24 January 2013