Jay Haynes: ‘Apple’s $3 Trillion Valuation’

Jay Haynes:

If we assume that Apple will grow its owner earnings at 5% for the next 10 years, and then 2% for all years after that (with adjustments for cash and debt), Apple’s market cap wouldn’t be $453 billion. It wouldn’t even be $1.2 trillion. It would be $3 trillion. This is a share price of $3,275 in contrast to today’s share price of $506. At just 5% annual growth for Apple.

That doesn’t mean the market is wrong. It just means the market thinks Apple’s growth is over, that it won’t even manage single-digit growth for the next decade.

Update, May 2026: Haynes’s original blog went belly-up (perhaps when Typepad did?), alas, but he republished the piece on Medium, with a bit of additional commentary up front, in 2016. This came up in the context of my revisiting Haynes’s prediction that Apple would reach a $3 trillion valuation.

★ Wednesday, 29 January 2014