In a pessimistic forecast, the Boston Consulting Group reckons
demand for cars with even limited self-driving features will never
exceed 25% of sales, and fully autonomous ones will account for
just 10% of sales by 2035.
Perhaps technology firms can accelerate the future of the car. But
whatever happens, this is a difficult business to break into.
Google would like the carmakers it hopes eventually to supplant to
help seal their doom by building its vehicles under contract.
Unsurprisingly, none seems too keen on this. Apple’s cash pile of
$178 billion is more than enough to set up a carmaking division
and tool up its factories. But the technology firms have no
manufacturing culture, and the skills needed to market, distribute
and provide after-sales service for cars is unlike anything they
are used to.
This whole piece strikes me as awfully shortsighted. Even the illustration that accompanies the article is bad.