The tablet market is in complete disarray. Only five short years
ago, the iPad helped jumpstart the category, ushering in
multi-touch computing and the modern-day app revolution to
large-screen devices. Today, there has never been a time when the
tablet market faces so much unknown.
A quick look at iPad and tablet shipment data would show that
things have gotten bad in recent quarters. However, in reality,
things are much worse than quarterly shipment data would suggest.
The seasonality found in the tablet segment makes it difficult to
see these long-term problems. A much better way at understanding
what has been taking place is to look at the year-over-year change
in shipments on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, highlighted in
Exhibit 1. This smoothing effect highlights that the iPad and
tablet have been on the decline for years and things continue to
worsen with the overall tablet market hitting negative territory
for the first time. All momentum has been lost.