Projecting the Ad Revenue Effect of iOS 9 Content Blocking

Ben Ilfeld and Jake Goldman, in a report for 10up:

We invented a hypothetical mid-size publisher based in the United States and reliant on exchange banner ads, using private data from a variety of sources and industry data reviewed in the report, including adoption models that predict equal or greater adoption compared to desktop ad blockers.

Eight months from now, our hypothetical publisher could see a 3.7% drop in ad revenue. With astronomical content blocker adoption (3× desktop rates) driven by App Store visibility and media coverage, that number could be as high as 11%. A potentially severe setback for businesses with thin margins.

If their model is accurate, the effects of iOS content blocking on publishers won’t be too bad. Their 11 percent worst-case scenario requires iOS users to adopt ad blockers at three times the rate of desktop users, which does not sound likely to me.

★ Saturday, 26 September 2015