So what does being significant in the car business mean? Does it
mean becoming the next Tesla? The next BYD or the next VW? How
Fortunately, we have something to compare an Apple entry to. Apple
has made a “significant” market entry in phones and others have
made entries in cars. If we contrast the rate of growth of Tesla,
EVs, and Hybrids to the rate of growth of iPhones in their
respective US markets, we obtain a test of significance. […]
Within a similar time frame, the range for entrant company share
capture spanned between 0.15% (Tesla as percent of US car market)
and 35% (Apple iPhone percent of US phone market).
The differences are thus measured with two orders of magnitude
(>100×). Put another way, if Tesla’s car entry was equivalent to
Apple’s iPhone entry they would have delivered about 5.5 million
cars rather than the 50.5k they delivered in 2015.