In light of BlackBerry’s decision this week to stop making hardware, it’s worth revisiting what is probably the best long-term prediction I’ve ever made on Daring Fireball:’ calling BlackBerry “doomed” in May 2008. Hindsight is 20-20, but this wasn’t a popular call in early 2008. At the time, the original iPhone was only 10 months old, and we were still a few months away from the iPhone 3G. Based on sales alone, BlackBerry looked very strong in 2008 — BlackBerry would more than triple their 2008 revenue in 2011. But their eventual decline and demise was inevitable.
BlackBerry was good at making computer-like gadgets; the iPhone was a gadget-like computer. If you could see that difference, and had a sense for just how difficult it would be for BlackBerry to gain expertise in computing hardware and software (in particular, creating a platform for apps), you could see just how much trouble they were in even though they had a handful of go-go sales years ahead of them.
★ Friday, 30 September 2016