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The Gender Divide

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight:

But it seems fair to say that, if Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him. I took a look at how men and women split their votes four years ago, according to polls conducted in November 2012. On average, Mitt Romney led President Obama by 7 percentage points among men, about the same as Trump’s 5-point lead among men now. But Romney held his own among women, losing them by 8 points, whereas they’re going against Trump by 15 points.

That’s the difference between a close election — as you’ll remember, those national polls in late 2012 showed the race neck-and-neck — and one that’s starting to look like a blowout.

Includes rather stark maps showing what the Electoral College would be like if only women voted (massive Clinton landslide) or if only men voted (solid win for Trump).

Wednesday, 12 October 2016