The Gender Divide

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight:

But it seems fair to say that, if Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him. I took a look at how men and women split their votes four years ago, according to polls conducted in November 2012. On average, Mitt Romney led President Obama by 7 percentage points among men, about the same as Trump’s 5-point lead among men now. But Romney held his own among women, losing them by 8 points, whereas they’re going against Trump by 15 points.

That’s the difference between a close election — as you’ll remember, those national polls in late 2012 showed the race neck-and-neck — and one that’s starting to look like a blowout.

Includes rather stark maps showing what the Electoral College would be like if only women voted (massive Clinton landslide) or if only men voted (solid win for Trump).

★ Wednesday, 12 October 2016