By John Gruber
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CNBC:
Google will pay $7.35 per share in cash for the acquisition, Fitbit said. Fitbit’s all time high share price was $51.90 on Aug. 5, 2015, a couple months after its stock market debut at $30.40. The deal is expected to close in 2020, according to the announcement.
Apple is showing that wearables are a huge market moving forward, and Apple is the only one getting it right so far. I don’t see Fitbit helping Google here.
The hardware business is very hard. Even if you “make it” and avoid burning all your cash, the best you can hope for is to be gobbled up by a giant. Nest (Google), Ring (Amazon), Eero (Amazon), Beats (Apple) and, now, Fitbit (Google).
Off the top of my head the only hardware startup of this era that’s seemingly standing on its own is Tesla — and its future remains questionable.
Fitbit 2019 revenue estimates are $1.45B so Google buying for $2.1B is not even 2x revenue.
When negotiating an acquisition 3x revenue is usually the baseline. This is telling about the state of Fitbit.
I don’t know anyone who’s bought a Fitbit device recently. I know runners and cyclists with Garmin watches, but I don’t know anyone still wearing a Fitbit.
★ Friday, 1 November 2019