‘Why Joe Biden Is Going to Win’

Kendall Kaut:

We’re three days from the election, and Joe Biden is going to win. I can hedge and say “Well, we could have a catastrophic polling error,” or “Trump is going to steal the election.” I don’t see either happening. Biden has led since March, and before most of you wake up on November 4th, Biden will be president-elect.

Trump faces too devastating a situation to win. If he wins, the entire polling industry, and quite possibly empiricism itself, would be in a nearly unfathomable crisis.

The easiest explanation is that Trump barely beat a terrible candidate in 2016. Trump is less popular than he was in 2016, Biden is more popular than Clinton, and the electorate is less hospitable to Trump than it was in 2016.

Kaut isn’t being glib or naive or hopeful. The above is just the start of a 5,000+ word piece backing it up. No election is ever in the bag. But the 2020 polls don’t look anything at all like the 2016 polls. I’m anxious, of course, because I care deeply, but I’m more excited than I am fearful.

If, like me, you find that cold hard facts calm your nerves, sit back with a nighttime beverage and dive into Kaut’s analysis.

★ Monday, 2 November 2020