Linked List: October 11, 2024

Friday, 11 October 2024

‘Elon Musk Makes Bold Claims About Tesla Robotaxi in Hollywood Backlot’ 

Jonathan Gitlin, automotive editor at Ars Technica, on Tesla’s vaporware event last night:

Over time, Musk claimed the operating costs of his Cybercab would be 20 cents per mile, “and yes you’ll be able to buy one,” he told the crowd to excited shrieks. “We expect the cost to be below $30,000,” Musk said, before expounding on a business model where instead of the company owning and operating these allegedly revenue-generating assets itself, they are instead owned by private individuals who each give Tesla its regular cut. This week another four top executives left the company in advance of last night’s event, including “the global vehicle automation and safety policy lead.”

“It’s going to be a glorious future,” Musk said, albeit not one that applies to families or groups of three or more.

Musk claims that Tesla “expects to start” fully unsupervised FSD next year on public roads in California and Texas. A recent analysis by an independent testing firm found the current build requires human intervention about once every 13 miles, often on roads it has used before.

Donald Trump, Yesterday, on Autonomous Cars 

Donald F. Trump, yesterday in Detroit:

“Do you like autonomous? Does anybody like an autonomous vehicle? Know what that is? Right? When you see a car driving along? Some people do, I don’t know. A little concerning to me, but the autonomous vehicles we’re going to stop from operating.”

This, on the very day Tesla was set to hold a high-profile event to promote autonomous vehicles. This, after Elon Musk dropped to his knees and begged for Trump’s approval — exactly as Trump predicted Musk would — at one of Trump’s Hitlerjugend rallies just last week.

It’s almost enough to make you think Trump is only in it for himself and will eventually betray and humiliate every single person who believes he’s on their side, and that his screws are now so loose that it only takes days, not weeks or months, for him to forget who his ostensible oligarchic allies are.

Why Are News Organizations Giving Any Credence to Elon Musk’s Claims About Tesla’s Previewed Self-Driving Taxi and Bus? 

Abhirup Roy and Akash Sriram, reporting for Reuters:

CEO Elon Musk showcased on Thursday a long-awaited robotaxi with two gull-wing doors and no steering wheel or pedals and surprised with robovan, betting on a shift in focus from low-priced mass-market cars to robotic vehicles. At a glitzy unveiling, Musk reached the stage in a “Cybercab” to be produced from 2026 — eventually in high volume — and priced under $30,000. He then introduced the robovan which can carry up to 20 people though offered few further details.

But Musk, who has a record of missing projections — and himself said he tended to be optimistic with time frames — did not say how quickly Tesla could ramp up robotaxi production, clear inevitable regulatory hurdles or implement a business plan to leapfrog robotaxi rivals such as Alphabet’s Waymo.

Even with the disclaimer of Musk’s “record of missing projections”, this is far too much credence. The availability dates, the prices — they’re all just made up. It’s a complete distraction from the fact that Tesla is way behind. Waymo is actually operating in four cities today. Somewhere in San Francisco or Austin, there’s probably a Daring Fireball reader reading this post while riding in a self-driving Waymo.

Wake me up when Tesla ships any of these vehicles. Until then, stop using the present tense about any of it. It’s all vaporware for now. (And the stock market isn’t buying it — on a day when markets are flat, Tesla is down 8 percent as I type. Update: It closed down close to 9 percent for the day.)

Also: How stupid is a two-seat taxi? “Well, there are three of us, so we better hail two rides...” It makes no sense.