Claim Chowder: Ming-Chi Kuo on Demand for the iPhone 16 Lineup

Ming-Chi Kuo, back on Sunday September 15:

Based on my latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple’s official websites, I’ve compiled key data on iPhone 16’s first-weekend pre-orders for each model, including pre-order sales, average delivery times, and shipments before pre-order. [...]

Analysis and Conclusions:

iPhone 16 series first-weekend pre-order sales are estimated at about 37 million units, down about 12.7% YoY from last year’s iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales. The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.

Note that pre-orders for the iPhone 16 lineup only started two days prior, on Friday September 13. Here were Kuo’s estimates for first-weekend pre-order sales, compared year-over-year to the equivalent iPhone 15 models:

iPhone 16 Pro Max-16%
iPhone 16 Pro-27%
iPhone 16 Plus+48%
iPhone 16+10%

These numbers bear no resemblance to Apple’s actual financial results for the October-December quarter. There was no marked downswing in demand for the 16 Pro and Pro Max, and there was no wild upswing in demand for the 16 Plus. Just one month after posting the above opening-weekend nonsense, Kuo himself reported, “iPhone 16 orders were cut by around 10M units for 4Q24–1H25, with most of the cuts affecting non-Pro models.” So in September Kuo claimed Pro sales were alarmingly down and regular iPhone 16 and 16 Plus sales were surprisingly strong, but in October he said Apple cut orders mostly with the “non-Pro models”. So why was any of this reported as news?

My thesis has long been that while Kuo clearly has some insight into some of Apple’s suppliers in Asia, he has no insight whatsoever into Apple’s sales. How could he? “Apple’s official websites” don’t publish sales numbers. I think he just pulls this stuff right out of his ass and hand waves that it has something to do with the estimated ship dates for new iPhone models. Further, I think Kuo picks these numbers not at random, and not based on an honest attempt to even guess the actual sales, but rather to create headlines and inject his name into the news. Has he ever once issued a “survey” that reported that iPhone demand was pretty much in line with expectations? If all you did was follow Ming-Chi Kuo’s reporting, you’d think Jeff Williams is incompetent and should have been fired years ago, because he has no ability to accurately forecast demand for Apple’s most important product. Clickbait in its purest form, detached completely from any factual reality.

★ Sunday, 2 March 2025