Did TikTok Swing the Election to Trump?

Taegan Goddard, writing at Political Wire regarding pollster David Shor’s appearance on Ezra Klein’s podcast:

His surveys indicate a clear causal relationship: People who relied on TikTok for news were much more likely to swing toward Trump than those who got their information from TV. His most striking data point:

When you zoom in on people who get their news from TikTok but don’t care very much about politics, this group is eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago — which is a lot.

What remains unclear is why this shift happened. Was TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, subtly adjusting its algorithm to undermine Democrats? Or was the platform simply reflecting broader anti-incumbent sentiment? Shor concedes:

You could tell a story that maybe just anti-incumbent stuff is going to do really well on TikTok, and Democrats are going to do great now. I don’t really know. But I think that, for whatever reason, this major shift really helped Republicans.

It used to be that getting your message out required persuading reporters, editors, and gatekeepers — people trained to vet and verify information.

Now anyone can make a short video, and if it’s compelling enough, it spreads like wildfire — except that it may be following a path predetermined by TikTok’s algorithms.

I worry that the liberal/left response to this will be to declare, with exasperation, that people shouldn’t be getting their news or forming their political opinions by what they see on TikTok. You need to meet people where they are, and craft messages for the media they consume.

★ Wednesday, 19 March 2025