Study Concludes That Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs

Tom Fairless, reporting for The Wall Street Journal (main link is a gift link; here’s a News+ link too):

The German research echoes recent reports by the Budget Lab at Yale and economists at Harvard Business School, finding that only a small fraction of the tariff costs were being borne by foreign producers.

By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%. [...]

Rather than acting as a tax on foreign producers, the tariffs functioned as a consumption tax on Americans, the report said. “There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” said Julian Hinz, an economics professor at Germany’s Bielefeld University who co-authored the study.

This is what economists expected, but it’s always important to measure actual results, no matter how obvious the conclusions seem in advance. But this one feels like we could file it next to “Sun continues to rise in east, set in west.”

★ Monday, 19 January 2026