Linked List: February 23, 2015

Monday, 23 February 2015

The Talk Show: ‘12 Hours a Day’ 

New episode of America’s favorite three-star podcast, featuring three-and-a-half-star guest John Moltz. Topics include Apple Watch; rumors that Apple is working on a secret car project; our love of old Mac hardware; and a long discussion on Ian Parker’s extraordinary New Yorker profile of Jony Ive and his design team at Apple.

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When the iPad Was Rumored to Start at $1,000 

Back in January 2010, the Wall Street Journal ran a report by Yukari Iwatani Kane and Geoffrey Fowler that contained this nugget:

Yair Reiner, an analyst for Oppenheimer & Co., said in a research note last month that the tablet would be priced at about $1,000, citing sources. One challenge: Apple’s MacBook laptops start at $999.

They bought the “about $1,000” part hook, line, and sinker, tweeting:

Exclusive: Apple to unveil a 10- to 11-inch tablet later this month for about $1,000. Shipping in March. http://on.wsj.com/70I9XL

When the iPad was unveiled, its actual starting price was half that, just $499.

In the wake of my piece last week on Apple Watch pricing, a few DF readers have emailed or tweeted to ask if that might not be what’s going on with the prices for the steel Apple Watch and gold Edition models. I don’t think so. Mainly because we already know Apple Watch’s starting price: $349 for the Sport model.

From what I’m hearing, I guessed pretty good last week: about $1,000 for Apple Watch, and $10,000+ for Edition. (I’m still thinking $749 starting price for the steel Apple Watch with Sport Band — roughly twice the price of the aluminum Sport model.)

Battery Life vs. Phone Thinness 

Christopher Mims, writing for the WSJ:

Survey after survey reveals there is one thing consumers wish manufacturers would change about their gadgets. And year after year, gadget makers make only tepid gestures toward giving it to us.

It’s better battery life. [...]

It doesn’t have to be this way. There’s a simple enough solution. It requires a company brave enough to persuade users that one of the things we’ve come to expect from phones and other gadgets — that every year, they become thinner and lighter — is a trend that has outlived its usefulness.

It’ll happen soon. Consider laptops — for years, battery life on a laptop was somewhere around 4 or 5 hours, at best. It was a struggle to use one throughout a cross-country flight. Today, you could probably fly coast to coast roundtrip with a MacBook Air on a single charge. But laptops got thinner and lighter before they got better battery life.

The Entrant’s Guide to the Automobile Industry 

Horace Dediu:

Like a siren, it calls.

The Auto Industry is significant. With gross revenues of over $2 trillion, production of over 66 million vehicles and growing[1] it seems to be a big, juicy target. It employs 9 million people directly and 50 million indirectly and politically it must rank among the top three industries worthy of government subsidy (or interference). Indeed, in many countries–the US included–government interference makes it practically impossible for a producer to go out of business, no matter how poorly it’s managed or how untenable the market conditions.

But this might be the tell-tale sign that danger lurks.

A simple question: Will there ever be a major disruption in the auto industry?

YouTube Kids 

New app for Android and iOS. I predict massive success.

The Economist on Apple and the Auto Industry 

The Economist:

In a pessimistic forecast, the Boston Consulting Group reckons demand for cars with even limited self-driving features will never exceed 25% of sales, and fully autonomous ones will account for just 10% of sales by 2035.

Perhaps technology firms can accelerate the future of the car. But whatever happens, this is a difficult business to break into. Google would like the carmakers it hopes eventually to supplant to help seal their doom by building its vehicles under contract. Unsurprisingly, none seems too keen on this. Apple’s cash pile of $178 billion is more than enough to set up a carmaking division and tool up its factories. But the technology firms have no manufacturing culture, and the skills needed to market, distribute and provide after-sales service for cars is unlike anything they are used to.

This whole piece strikes me as awfully shortsighted. Even the illustration that accompanies the article is bad.

Marketing and Loyalty 

William Anderson ably pooh-poohs this goofy HBR piece by Alexander Jutkowitz, in which Jutkowitz argues that Apple is proof that “loyalty” has killed marketing.

Dieter Bohn on the Sony SmartWatch 3 

Dieter Bohn:

Of course, “but it works” is a very low bar. It’s hard to escape the feeling that Android Wear is in a bit of a holding pattern until we see how people respond to the Apple Watch. Or maybe we’ll see some big updates at this year’s Google I/O developer conference.

This photo says it all.