The Daring Fireball Election Desk Is Calling It: Biden Wins

Wednesday, 4 November 2020

Bit tighter than polls suggested, to say the least, but the Biden campaign had their eyes focused on the states that truly mattered and it looks like they’re going to win them. Now that Wisconsin is in Biden’s column, as I type this, the Electoral College score is 237-214 for Biden, with 270 needed to win.

Among the states that haven’t yet been called:

• Arizona (11 EV) is in the bag for Biden. Take it to the bank. The AP and Fox News both called it for Biden last night, and neither have rescinded their calls. The AP, I believe, has never been wrong. Fox News’s on-air talent are a bunch of partisan hacks but their polling desk is legit. That gets Biden to 248.
• Nevada (6 EV) gets Biden to 254. No one thinks Trump is going to win Nevada, they’re just not done counting in Vegas and Reno.
• Michigan (16 EV) gets Biden to 270. This won’t get called until tonight, at the earliest, but Biden looks very likely to win Michigan.
• Pennsylvania (20 EV) also looks very good for Biden. I think Biden will wind up winning by about 100,000 votes when they’re done counting, based on how the mail-in ballots counted have gone so far (78-21 for Biden), but they won’t be done counting here until Friday.
• Georgia (16 EV), believe it or not, could be the closest state in the nation. Biden doesn’t need Georgia or Pennsylvania, but if he gets both, that gets him all the way to 306 Electoral College votes, which is where I had the map last night just after midnight.

Trump can blather all he wants, but he’s just embarrassing himself. The counted votes are going to put Biden in the White House.

Deep breath.

Keep the faith, friends.