By John Gruber
Mux — Video for developers
Linked List: October 16, 2008
Thursday, 16 October 2008
- Stock Market Returns by Presidential Party ★
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OK, I said the previous link on this “stock market returns by presidential party” thing was the last one, but this one is way too good to pass up. Theodore Gray, co-founder of Mathematica, used Mathematica to create a very rich interactive model. He plays with the data in different ways, like by assuming that it takes a full year for a president to have any effect on the market, factoring in dividends, and by factoring in inflation (in which case the data looks really good for Republican presidents).
Gray has convinced me that this is not a good metric for measuring presidential economic policies, and his conclusion is too good to spoil.
(Thanks to Andreas Weiler for the link.)
- One More on That NYT S&P Index Graph ★
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Mark Newhouse took the chart and reordered it into chronological order. Interesting result. The conclusion I draw looking at this version is not that the stock market performed poorly under Republican presidents in general, but rather just under Richard Nixon and George W. Bush. A thoughtful exercise in information design.
To make it even more accurate, I’d suggest widening the arrows to represent the length of each president’s term. Two-term presidents (not to mention Roosevelt, who was in office for over 12 years) should be weighted more heavily than one-termers (and Gerald Ford).
- iTunes Store Tops 200 Million TV Shows Sold ★
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200 million shows sounds pretty good for something that’s supposedly a failure.
- Vintage 2004 Claim Chowder ★
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Alex Salkever, back in October 2004, in a piece subtitled “Apple lost one war to Microsoft by not licensing its Mac operating system. It may repeat the error with its iPod and music software”:
Are Apple and its enigmatic CEO bringing about a doomsday déjà vu with their steady refusals to let others partake in the iTunes juggernaut? That seems to be the case.
And:
Microsoft will probably make a steady stream of improvements in its media-player software. Will it ever match Apple in ease of use and elegance? No — but who cares, really? Many consumers are more than happy with something that’s good enough, and cheap.
Who cares, indeed.
- Mark C. Chu-Carroll on That S&P Graph From the NYT ★
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Chu-Carroll says it’s not a meaningful comparison because it doesn’t address dividends.
I would retort that the chart didn’t claim to represent anything other than the change in stock prices in the S&P index. It shows the change in one metric over time.
- Harry McCracken on the New MacBook Pro ★
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Harry McCracken on the build quality:
I hate car metaphors in computer reviews, but I can’t help myself: The old MacBook Pro was a solidly-built Toyota, and the new one is a Lexus.
- The Android Fine Print ★
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Computerworld:
The Android Market business and program policies also include an item that says users can return any application for a full refund within 24 hours of the time of purchase. In the absence of a trial version of applications, this offer will let users return an application that might not deliver exactly what they expected.
Sure wish the iTunes App Store offered this.
- Apple Changes Developer Documentation Typography ★
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Apple’s developer documentation has been set in Palatino for as long as I’ve been reading it. Looks like they’ve switched everything to Myriad this week. (I’m linking to the Human Interface Guidelines web page here; you’ll have to click the PDF link to see the new design.)
Update: Several readers pointed out that the PDF metadata indicates Apple has finally stopped using FrameMaker in Classic to produce its documentation. The PDF Producer string now reads “XEP 4.9 build 20070115”.
- The Spreadsheet Psychic ★
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Adam Sternbergh profiles Nate Silver for New York Magazine:
At his day job, Silver works for Baseball Prospectus, a loosely organized think tank that, in the last ten years, has revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats. Furthermore, Silver himself invented a system called PECOTA, an algorithm for predicting future performance by baseball players and teams. (It stands for “player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm,” but is named, with a wink, after the mediocre Kansas City Royals infielder Bill Pecota.) Baseball Prospectus has a reputation in sports-media circles for being unfailingly rigorous, occasionally arrogant, and almost always correct.
- Apple 2008 Environmental Update ★
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Steve Jobs:
For the past several years, Apple has made a concerted effort to be more transparent about the steps we are taking to protect the environment and make our business more sustainable. In this environmental update, I’d like to inform you of our recent progress and introduce you to a groundbreaking system of reporting that we believe is unmatched in our industry.
- Bulls, Bears, Donkeys, and Elephants ★
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Tommy McCall compares the growth of the S&P stock index under Republican and Democratic presidents since 1929:
As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.
Facts continue to hold a liberal bias.
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right ★
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Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is a marvel of statistical analysis. The middle column is opinion and analysis, and, yes, Silver (along with his colleague Sean Quinn) is a Barack Obama supporter. But the left and right columns are math, not opinion. Check out the FAQ for a look at just how complex the models are.
- App Store Usability ★
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Michael Tsai on the App Store:
Since the prices are generally low, I haven’t been shy about buying apps that look promising. This looks to Apple like a success, but I wish I could return about 2/3 of my purchases.
I’d say my average is around the same.
- Khoi Vinh: ‘Make Note of the Exits’ ★
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Good advice.
- Phillies Win National League Pennant ★
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Phil Sheridan:
Say it out loud. Shout it so William Penn can hear it atop City Hall. The Phillies are going to the World Series for the first time since the mullets-and-beer 1993 team lost to Joe Carter and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Pictures here.