He wrote this, just three years ago:
Some have been surprised at the lack of inclusion of Flash Player
on a recent magical device. […]
We are now on the verge of delivering Flash Player 10.1 for
smartphones with all but one of the top manufacturers. This
includes Google’s Android, RIM’s Blackberry, Nokia, Palm Pre and
many others across form factors including not only smartphones
but also tablets, netbooks, and internet-connected TVs. Flash in
the browser provides a competitive advantage to these devices
because it will enable their customers to browse the whole Web.
Well, how’d that work out? Those companies and platforms are now either (a) out of business, (b) on the verge of going out of business, or (c) have abandoned Flash Player entirely.
For example, the recent Nexus One from Google will rock with a
great experience in the browser with Flash Player 10.1.
Yeah, it rocked so hard Google dropped Flash Player support from Android last year.
Even in the case of video, where Flash is enabling over 75% of
video on the Web today, the coming HTML video implementations
cannot agree on a common format across browsers, so users and
content creators would be thrown back to the dark ages of video on
the Web with incompatibility issues.
And now here we are today in the dark ages of video, where we can only see by the light of the millions of HTML5 videos playing on Android, Windows Phone, BlackBerry, and iOS mobile devices.
I have a bad feeling about this.
Dare Obasanjo, on Twitter:
The point @gruber misses in [“Ceding the Crown”] is that
Apple’s share price was based on the assumption of overwhelming
That’s actually a point I wanted to make, but forgot. My misconception #1:
Apple’s lack of serious competition would, or at least might,
result in an overwhelming market share advantage for the iPhone.
I think some significant amount of AAPL’s run-up was based on this notion, and when it became clear it wasn’t going to happen, all other signs of iOS’s growth and vibrancy be damned, those investors cashed out.